The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)  released a startling report on October 6, 2018 that was a clarion call to the planet. The IPCC’s report warned that if the global temperatures increase by the formerly accepted 1.5 to 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures, the impacts will be far more devastating than previously projected. In December of 2015, the Paris Accord charged world leaders to keep the global average temperature increase well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Since before the industrial revolution, the global temperature has already increased by 0.8°C to 1.2°C, depending on the region.

We are already about halfway to the 2°C tipping mark.

What is the IPCC

The IPCC is a science-based, international body backed by the United Nations, put together to assess climate change science, inform, and advise governments about climate change issues. Created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), the panel is made up of volunteer scientists from all over the world.  91 authors from over 40 countries worked on the IPCC’s report, released from Incheon, South Korea. They reviewed and cited over 6000 peer reviewed journal articles related to climate change. The report reviews current climate change impacts at a 1°C increase from pre-industrial temperatures and assesses impacts should the temperature increase up to 1.5°C or 2°C from pre-industrial temperatures. The take-home message is that, while we are looking at significant impacts from a 1.5°C increase since pre-industrial times, we may have time to adapt and help more people, ecosystems, and organisms survive. In the case of a 2°C since pre-industrial times the outcomes appear to be much more severe.

This graph illustrating warming until now and potential warming paths is from the IPCC’s report.Potential Impacts at a 1.5°C Increase from Pre-Industrial Averages

The effects of climate change are notoriously hard to nail down because they are dependent on many factors. Risks are dependent on the rate, peak, and duration of the temperature increases. Effects will also be different for each region of the planet. For example, warming will be much more intense in the Arctic than in other areas. Increased droughts are expected to occur in dry areas, such as savannahs and grasslands, and coastal areas are expected to experience more flooding and loss of coastline. With that understanding, we know that there will be an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme weather, including tornadoes, hurricanes, and droughts. We know that there will be heavier precipitation in many areas and precipitation deficits in other areas. We know that there will be an increase in temperatures – hot enough to kill people who can’t protect themselves from the heat. This will disproportionately affect poor people in developing nations and people living in the mid latitudes. We also expect more extreme cold events, particularly at night in the higher latitudes. We know that sea levels will rise and will continue to rise into the 22^nd century. Sea level rise is in relation to arctic ice melt and marine ice instability. The raising of sea level will affect millions of miles of low laying coastal land as well as many small islands – some of which will be completely submerged.

Biodiversity and unique ecosystems will also be affected. For example, woody shrubs from boreal forests are expected to encroach into tundra area, setting off an ecological chain that will result in degradation of the current ecosystems, much to the detriment of the organisms that live there. Many of our foods, medicines and other products come from animals and plants in these sensitive ecosystems. They provide a barrier against erosion, desertification, and natural disasters. Loss of biodiversity as well as changes in the ecosystems they live in can affect the distribution of pathogenic microbes and disease.  Forests are carbon dioxide sinks, sequestering (absorbing) CO2 from the atmosphere, naturally. Many of these unique ecosystems and much of our vitally important biodiversity will be lost because of climate change, however, these losses will be much less severe at a 1.5°C temperature increase than at a 2°C from pre-industrial temperatures. An example of this is the decimation of the coral reefs. At a 1.5°C increase we expect a 70-90% loss, but at a 2°C increase we expect a 99% loss.

These impacts will trickle down to affect our health, and many of our economies and industries. In many cases, warming temperatures will cause flora and fauna to move towards the higher, cooler latitudes. One concerning example of this is the migration of mosquitoes carrying the pathogens responsible for malaria and dengue fever to more favorable habitats. This will change the distribution of these diseases, bringing them into areas that previously didn’t have them, or haven’t had them for a very long time.  (Malaria, for example, used to be common  as far north as Montana and New York, and was spread as far west as the Rocky Mountains.)  Impacts from climate change will also affect our water and food security (the availability of water and food), crops, and other food industries. One model predicted that the marine fishing industry is expected to experience a decrease in the global annual catch of 1.5 million tons at a 1.5°C increase. That loss will be 3 million tons at a 2°C increase in 2006, the global annual catch was 92 million tons. This loss may seem small, but it can affect the price of wild caught fish in the United States.

Enough doom and gloom, though….

How do we Fix This?

The global average temperature has already increased by 1°C over pre-industrial temperatures and is expected to increase 0.2°C per decade from the greenhouse gasses we are currently emitting. This 0.2°C increase per decade can be expected to continue for, potentially, millennia to come. Does this mean that there is not much we can do about it, so we should just ride it out? Absolutely not. The IPCC report advises that reaching and maintaining zero human caused greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide) globally would stop global warming on “multi-decade timescales”. The report urges world leaders to cut carbon dioxide emissions 45% by 2030 and 100% by 2050.   Meeting this carbon goal will require rapid and wide-spread changes in many areas, including energy and land use, design urban and built environments, infrastructure (including transportation), and the industrial manufacturing sector.

Recommended Adaptations:

In Energy – lower energy consumption, increased energy efficiency, faster electrification of energy, Use of renewable energy sources.

In Land Use – sustainable intensification of land use practices, restoration of eco-systems, dietary changes toward less resource-intensive diets (such as consumption of insects). In simple language, we need more tree areas and less cleared land, fewer water intensive crops, and less land acres used for grazing.

In Urban Areas and Infrastructure – energy efficient homes and buildings (here’s examples of green architecture), more green spaces, better roads, more and better mass transit, bicycle paths, and electric or hybrid vehicles. We will also need to find new ways to acquire water, such as better desalinization techniques, and better waste treatment technologies.

In the Industrial Sector – use of sustainable based bio-fuels, electrification, hydrogen, product substitution (using more sustainable products in the place of energy inefficient products), hydrogen, and Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS).

Research and Development – To accomplish this, there will also need to be funding for research leading to energy efficiency, clean technology, and environmental and biological sciences. While there are some technologies that can remove CO2 from the atmosphere, they are still experimental, only work on a small scale, and are expensive to use. To accomplish the recommended goals, we will certainly need to improve CO2 removal technologies.

Though these tasks seem daunting, they also represent economic opportunities: The development of new technologies and the improvement of our infrastructure and the built environment would create millions of new jobs, companies, and, conceivably, fortunes.

What Can YOU Do?

It is also important to consider that though much of the recommended adaptations should be enacted by large corporations and governmental bodies, it’s not just up to them. Most of us are not climate scientists. We aren’t politicians and we aren’t big oil, coal, or industry. We may feel like we have no stake in this situation, but we do. The IPCC’s report makes it clear that every living, breathing thing on this planet has a stake in what happens next. This is a conversation that we must be having in every living room in the country. We need to spend our money wisely and vote with our dollars (I know it’s trite, but it’s true) and our, uh, votes. We need to make decisions that support sustainability, and proactive conservation even in our homes. We need to vote for leaders who will fight for clean, safe, and renewable energy, smart city planning, sustainable industrial practices, and funding for research. In the United States, ultimately, we can make a difference. If our system isn’t part of the solution, we can change it. Climate crisis isn’t a far-off future probability. It’s starting now and it’s time for us to remember who we are. We explored the planet and built the pyramids. We split the atom and achieved flight. We visited the moon and have mapped the galaxy. Surely with our collective passion and intelligence we will find a way to slow the warming of our planet.